Trading Comparable
Company name |
Share price |
Eps |
P/E |
Tesco |
256.7 |
14.7 |
17.46 |
Morrisons |
252 |
13 |
19.38 |
Average |
254.35 |
13.85 |
18.42 |
Valuation |
|
Target company EPS |
12.7 |
Average competitors P/E |
20.71 |
Implied share price |
276.57 |
Current share price |
321 |
Upside from current share price |
66.65 |
Company name |
Share price |
Eps |
P/E |
Sainsburry |
321 |
12.7 |
25.29 |
Transaction comparable
Target Company name |
Transaction date |
Transaction value |
EBITDA (million) |
TV / EBITDA |
Tesco |
02/05/18 |
20239 |
270 |
74.9592592593 |
Morrisons |
23/04/18 |
215331.144 |
806 |
267.1602282878 |
Target Company name |
Transaction value |
EBITDA (million) |
TV / EBITDA |
Target company sainsburry |
160347523 |
121 |
1325186.14049587 |
Discounted cash flow model
Tax Rate |
35.0% |
Net Debt |
$83.4 |
Shares |
35.021 |
Unlevered Free Cash Flow Calculation |
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Calendar Year Ending December 31, |
CAGR |
||||||||||||||||||
2007A |
2008P |
2009P |
2010E |
2011E |
2012E |
2008-2012 |
|||||||||||||
EBIT |
$120.0 |
$126.2 |
$133.2 |
$137.7 |
$142.4 |
$147.3 |
3.9% |
||||||||||||
Plus: Non-deductible Goodwill Amort. |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|||||||||||||
EBITA |
$120.0 |
$126.2 |
$133.2 |
$137.7 |
$142.4 |
$147.3 |
3.9% |
||||||||||||
Less: Provision for Taxes |
(42.0) |
(44.2) |
(46.6) |
(48.2) |
(49.9) |
(51.6) |
|||||||||||||
Unlevered Net Income |
$78.0 |
$82.0 |
$86.6 |
$89.5 |
$92.6 |
$95.8 |
3.9% |
||||||||||||
Plus: D&A (excl. non-deductible GW amort.) |
15.3 |
15.9 |
16.7 |
16.0 |
15.6 |
15.4 |
|||||||||||||
Less: Capital Expenditures |
(18.0) |
(16.0) |
(14.1) |
(14.6) |
(15.1) |
(15.6) |
|||||||||||||
Less: Increase in Net Working Capital |
(9.5) |
8.3 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
3.4 |
|||||||||||||
Unlevered Free Cash Flow |
$65.8 |
$90.2 |
$92.3 |
$94.2 |
$96.4 |
$99.0 |
2.3% |
Total Enterprise Value |
Total Equity Value |
||||||||
Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
||||||||
7.5x |
8.0x |
8.5x |
7.5x |
8.0x |
8.5x |
||||
Discount |
10.0% |
$1,042.4 |
$1,088.1 |
$1,133.9 |
Discount |
10.0% |
$959.0 |
$1,004.7 |
$1,050.5 |
Rate |
11.0% |
1,003.0 |
1,046.7 |
1,090.4 |
Rate |
11.0% |
919.6 |
963.3 |
1,007.0 |
(WACC) |
12.0% |
965.5 |
1,007.3 |
1,049.1 |
(WACC) |
12.0% |
882.1 |
923.9 |
965.7 |
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate |
Total Price Per Share |
||||||||
Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
||||||||
7.5x |
8.0x |
8.5x |
7.5x |
8.0x |
8.5x |
||||
Discount |
10.0% |
1.0% |
1.5% |
1.9% |
Discount |
10.0% |
$27.38 |
$28.69 |
$30.00 |
Rate |
11.0% |
1.9% |
2.4% |
2.9% |
Rate |
11.0% |
26.26 |
27.51 |
28.75 |
(WACC) |
12.0% |
2.8% |
3.3% |
3.8% |
(WACC) |
12.0% |
25.19 |
26.38 |
27.58 |
DCF Analysis (2008-2012): Perpetuity Growth Method |
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Total Enterprise Value |
Total Equity Value |
||||||||||||||||||
Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate |
Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate |
||||||||||||||||||
3.0% |
3.5% |
4.0% |
3.0% |
3.5% |
4.0% |
||||||||||||||
Discount |
10.0% |
$1,260.8 |
$1,335.1 |
$1,421.7 |
Discount |
10.0% |
$1,177.4 |
$1,251.7 |
$1,338.3 |
||||||||||
Rate |
11.0% |
1,103.6 |
1,158.0 |
1,220.1 |
Rate |
11.0% |
1,020.2 |
1,074.6 |
1,136.7 |
||||||||||
(WACC) |
12.0% |
981.4 |
1,022.5 |
1,068.8 |
(WACC) |
12.0% |
898.0 |
939.1 |
985.4 |
||||||||||
Implied Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
Total Price Per Share |
||||||||||||||||||
Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate |
Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate |
||||||||||||||||||
3.0% |
3.5% |
4.0% |
3.0% |
3.5% |
4.0% |
||||||||||||||
Discount |
10.0% |
9.9x |
10.7x |
11.6x |
Discount |
10.0% |
$33.62 |
$35.74 |
$38.22 |
||||||||||
Rate |
11.0% |
8.7x |
9.3x |
10.0x |
Rate |
11.0% |
29.13 |
30.68 |
32.46 |
||||||||||
(WACC) |
12.0% |
7.7x |
8.2x |
8.7x |
(WACC) |
12.0% |
25.64 |
26.82 |
28.14 |
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(1) Assumes net debt of $83.4mm as of 5/16/08. |
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(2) Assumes outstanding diluted shares of 35.021 million. |
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